A Bayesian Model of Single Party Dominance

Motivated by the South African case, in this paper I present a new theory explaining the maintenance of single-party dominance in socially heterogeneous countries. The theory explores how citizens' beliefs about a dominant party structure both voter behavior and the electoral strategies of incumbent and opposition parties. Employing a two-part stylized formal model, I hypothesize that variation in the distribution and evolution of citizens' beliefs over time under-girds a political equilibrium in which a dominant party can maintain support among diverse segments of the citizenry with conflicting preferences over policy outcomes. Thus, in contrast to most of the comparative politics literature, the theory emphasizes the micro-foundations of single-party dominance. The paper is a partial and preliminary effort in advance of my dissertation prospectus.