Guns, Crime, and Academics: Some Reflections on the Gun Control Debate

This comment on Thomas Marvell’s “The Impact of Banning Juvenile Gun Possession” analyzes Marvell’s empirical findings and their policy implications for gun control legislation. While Marvell’s article stresses the absence of any finding favorable to juvenile gun bans, this comment points out that the statistical results actually support the stronger finding that some of the juvenile gun bans are associated with a statistically significant increase in homicides nationwide. Under either finding, the juvenile gun bans are welfare reducing because of the inherently costly nature of conventional gun control legislation. The concluding discussion argues that the failure to draw appropriate policy conclusions from methodologically sound findings on controversial subjects such as gun control undercuts the value of academic research as compared with competing influences in the public debate. Thomas Marvell’s examination of the relationship between juvenile gun bans and homicide rates is interesting both for its particular findings and for its implications for the contemporary gun control debate. His work comes in two parts. His initial paper, which I examine first, had as its primary finding that the wave of state and federal legislation in the 1980s and early 1990s, which criminalized the possession of handguns by minors, did not have its presumably intended effect of reducing gun homicides against either minors or the overall population. His published paper, which I review in the Appendix, finds weaker results. Let me start with the initial paper. In my view, Marvell’s initial statistical results should be interpreted to support the stronger finding that at least some of these juvenile gun bans are associated with a statistically significant increase in gun homicide rates. * Professor of Law, George Mason University School of Law. This article is an expanded version of remarks made at the American Enterprise Institute conference Guns, Crime, and Safety, December 10–11, 1999, in Washington, D.C. The author acknowledges several helpful conversations with Michael K. Block, Bruce H. Kobayashi, and Nelson Lund, comments on an earlier draft by an anonymous referee, and research assistance from Keirsten Hage. 1 Thomas B. Marvell, The Impact of Banning Juvenile Gun Possession (paper presented at the American Enterprise Institute conference Guns, Crime, and Safety, December 10–11, 1999, Washington, D.C). 2 Thomas B. Marvell, The Impact of Banning Juvenile Gun Possession, in this issue, at __. 716 the journal of law and economics Marvell seems to discount this secondary finding, which he characterizes as offering “slight support for the theory that the bans increase homicides because the juveniles appear more vulnerable.” He draws no policy prescription from the evidence presented.