Detection-attribution of global warming at the regional scale: How to deal with precipitation variability?
نویسنده
چکیده
[1] Given the strong natural variability of precipitation, detection of anthropogenic climate change has been mainly based on surface thermal indicators. It is here argued that precipitation variability, whatever its natural or anthropogenic origin, is likely to affect surface temperature and, thereby, to hamper the detection-attribution of climate change at the regional scale. This issue is illustrated over Sudan and Sahel using the outputs of eleven coupled general circulation models having participated in the latest IPCC simulations. Like in situ observations, models show a strong relationship between detrended seasonal anomalies of surface air temperature and precipitation during the summer monsoon season. Linear regressions are then used to remove the precipitation influence on observed and simulated linear trends in surface air temperature. The results indicate that this strategy is efficient to reduce the spread in the simulated surface warming and make it more consistent with the instrumental record over recent decades. Citation: Douville, H. (2006), Detection-attribution of global warming at the regional scale: How to deal with precipitation variability?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L02701, doi:10.1029/ 2005GL024967.
منابع مشابه
Detection and Attribution of Changing in Seasonal variability cause of climate change (Case study: Hillsides of Central Southern Alborz Mountains)
.Detection and Attribution of Changing in Seasonal variability cause of climate change (Case study: Hillsides of Central Southern Alborz Mountains) Abstract One of the most important challenges for the human communities is Global Warming. This vital problem affected by Climate Change and corresponding effects. Thus this article attempted to assess the trend of real climate variables from syno...
متن کاملClimate Change Impact on Precipitation Extreme Events in Uncertainty Situation; Passing from Global Scale to Regional Scale
Global warming and then climate change are important topics studied by researchers throughout the world in the recent decades. In these studies, climatic parameters changes are investigated. Considering large-scaled output of AOGCMs and low precision in computational cells, uncertainty analysis is one of the principles in doing hydrological studies. For this reason, it is tried that investigati...
متن کاملAttribution of Precipitation Changes on a Regional Scale by Neural Network Modeling: A Case Study
On a regional scale, climate variability masks any direct link between external forcings and precipitation values. Thus, the problem of attribution of precipitation changes splits into two distinct steps: understanding how forcings influence circulation patterns and finding relationships between these patterns and the behavior of precipitation. Here, we deal with this second step, by analyzing ...
متن کاملDisentangling the Multiple Sources of Large-Scale Variability in Australian Wintertime Precipitation
Precipitation is influenced bymultiple large-scale natural processes.Many of these large-scale precipitation ‘‘drivers’’ are not independent of one another, which complicates attribution.Moreover, it is unclear whether natural interannual drivers alone can explain the observed longer-term precipitation trends or account for projected precipitation changes with global warming seen in climate mod...
متن کاملMapping and attribution of change in streamflow in the coterminous United States
An increasing trend in global streamflow has been variously attributed to global warming, land use, and a reduction in plant transpiration under higher CO2 levels. To separate these influences for the coterminous United States, we use a set of over 1000 United States Geological Survey stream gauges primarily from small, minimally disturbed watersheds to estimate annual streamflow per unit area ...
متن کامل