Fertility trends in rural China in the 1980s: cohort effect versus period effect.

Fertility trends in rural China during the 1980s are examined in terms of the cohort and period effect of fertility. Variations in fertility among the subregions of rural China are also examined, and it is demonstrated that birth bunching characterized the decade. The implications for future fertility and family planning are discussed also. Analysis is based on the stratified, systematic, cluster and random sample from the 2/1000 Fertility Sampling Survey, 1988, in 30 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities of China. 485,2356 households comprising 2,151,212 individuals were enumerated. 459,269 were married women 15-57 years. The total fertility rate (TFR) and the total parity progression rate (TPPR) are differentiated, and the trends revealed. Tables provide TFR and TPPR both parity and subregion for rural China for 1985-87. Fertility variation is also described for the years 1985-87 by TFR and TPPR. Birth bunching or the bunching of 1st births is also discussed at some length. High parity declined over the decade, but birth bunching existed in at least 15 of the 29 subregions. 2nd birth bunching also occurred in 11 of the 29 regions. Population planning programs overlooked the timing of marriage and childbearing, particularly in 1st marriage and 1st births. New options being proposed are the 27-4 option, which recommends 27 years of age as the minimum age for 1st childbearing and 4 years spacing between children, and granting permission to have 2 children and spacing them 8-10 years apart. Another option would be to raise the mean age of childbearing to 30 years. It is noted that except for Xinjiang and Tibet all subregions had a TFR 4.0 in the 1980s and the fertility of 3rd and higher parity had declined. The national TFR reached 2.3, but the 1-child policy tended to cluster around the eastern coastal regions. The fertility trends could be described as bunching of 1st births in the 1st part of the 1980s. The bunching of 2nd births in mid decade, and the tendency for 3rd births in rural areas at the end of the decade. Fertility decline was due to an increase in women of childbearing age, the ceiling effect of low fertility, and the onset of socioeconomic development. Reducing fertility and reaching replacement level are 2 distinct phenomena characterizing China's past trends. Socioeconomic development is ongoing and the effects on social, cultural, and economic conditions is of importance. Compared with the developing world, the death rates and natural increases are relatively low. Population problems continue, and TFR must be reduced to 2.0 by 2000. Population will exceed 1.2 billion after the mid 1990s. Migration and population movements will characterize the 1990s.