Projecting global marine biodiversity impacts under climate change scenarios

Introduction 236 Methodology 239 Sample of marine fish and invertebrates 239 Dynamic bioclimate envelope model 239 Climate change scenarios 241 Climate change impact on biodiversity 241 Results 242 Climate change-induced range shift 243 Discussion 245 Key uncertainties 246 Potential implications and future directions 247 Acknowledgements 247 References 248 Abstract Climate change can impact the pattern of marine biodiversity through changes in species’ distributions. However, global studies on climate change impacts on ocean biodiversity have not been performed so far. Our paper aims to investigate the global patterns of such impacts by projecting the distributional ranges of a sample of 1066 exploited marine fish and invertebrates for 2050 using a newly developed dynamic bioclimate envelope model. Our projections show that climate change may lead to numerous local extinction in the sub-polar regions, the tropics and semi-enclosed seas. Simultaneously, species invasion is projected to be most intense in the Arctic and the Southern Ocean. Together, they result in dramatic species turnovers of over 60% of the present biodiversity, implying ecological disturbances that potentially disrupt ecosystem services. Our projections can be viewed as a set of hypothesis for future analytical and empirical studies.