Chad Outline

The model not only underpredicts civil war onsets, but it also had inconsistent success in its point predictions. It points to 1960-61 as the years Chad was most vulnerable to a civil war (over six percent probability for each of these years). Yet the first civil was onset was not until 1965 when the odds were a bit over one percent, about two-thirds the world average. Although the model does not get the precise onset date correct for Chad’s first civil war, the reasons for the onset of this war (in fact three separate events) are partially consistent with our theory. The civil war occurred because of low state capacity, especially in the northern region where the war germinated. Chad was too poor and weak to forestall rebellion in the North. But given its terrain, Northern Chad would have been difficult for even a wealthy state with a well-developed bureaucracy to control. Thus weakness at the center and remoteness of the periphery were the facilitating conditions for the civil war. But our theoretical mechanism, that of the commitment problem to minorities, did not appear to be consequential. Instead, the narrative favors an interpretation that focuses on Northerners’ the opportunity to capture power rather than their fear of extraction by Southerners.