Free and Open Source GIS: Will There Ever Be a Geo-Linux?

This paper examines the constraints that limit the large-scale adoption of open source GIS. Although the open source GIS community has already achieved relevant results, their products have a small market share. There is equivalent to Linux and Apache in the open source GIS scene. We try to explain why this happens, by considering some factors that control the evolution and adoption of open source software. Our view is that the community effort is split in many different systems, not allowing a dominant solution to come forth. Thus, none of the current open source GIS has the potential to be a disruptive technology. Then, we consider a future scenario where most public geospatial data will be available as open access policy. This scenario is becoming more probable given recent data policy decision in Europe, USA and other countries. In this scenario, there is a major chance for a disruptive open source GIS to appear.