Book Ii Chapter Xi De La Probabilité Des Témoignages
نویسنده
چکیده
We have extracted a ball from an urn which contains n− 1 black balls and one white ball. A witness to the drawing announces that the extracted ball is white; we demand the probability of this exit. If the number n is very great, that which renders extraordinary the exit of the white ball, the probability of the error or of the falsehood of the witness becomes quite near to certitude, that which shows how the extraordinary facts weaken the belief due to the testimonies. No 45.
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