Design of an Evacuation Demand Forecasting Module for Hurricane Planning Applications

This paper discusses the development and implementation of an evacuation demand forecasting module that was incorporated into a comprehensive decision support system for the planning and management of contraflow operations in the Gulf of Mexico. Contraflow implies the reversing of one direction of a highway in order to permit a substantially increased travel demand exiting away from an area impacted by a natural disaster or any other type of catastrophic event. Correctly estimating the evacuation demand originated from such a catastrophic event is critical to a successful contraflow implementation. One problem faced by transportation officials is the arranging of the different stages of this complex traffic procedure. Both the prompt deployment of resources and personnel as well as the duration of the actual contraflow affect the overall effectiveness, safety and cost of the evacuation event. During this project, researchers from the University of Alabama developed an integral decision support system for contraflow evacuation planning to assist the Alabama Department of Transportation Maintenance Bureau in the evaluation and planning of contraflow operations oriented to mitigate the evacuation burdens of a hurricane event. This paper focuses on the design of the demand forecasting module of such a decision support system.