A simple Bayesian heuristic for social learning and groupthink
نویسندگان
چکیده
In this paper we analyze a simple Bayesian heuristic for learning from others’posteriors and show its applicability to communication in groups and in social networks. The heuristic corresponds to rational Bayesian updating when individuals have conditionally independent information. When agents suffer from corelation neglect they also use the Heuristic. We show that communication in groups can lead to more polarized or less polarized beliefs for the group compared with those of the individuals. Applying the heuristic for social learning in networks, we show how consensus is in itself dynamic, and can shift as a result of repeated communication.
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