Goals, Guidelines, and Cans~ra~n~s Facing Mane~ary Pal~cymakers: An Overview
نویسنده
چکیده
The rate of inflation in the consumer price index over the past three years has been low and stable, averaging 2.8 percent and never exceeding that average by more than one-half percentage point in any quarter. Attending this success on the inflation front has been a gradual decline in the unemployment rate to a level that most economists agree is consistent with full employment. In broad terms, the Fed appears to have achieved the low-inflation "soft landing" that it sought. Attaining this desirable economic state was not an easy task. Along the way, the Federal Reserve had to balance the often competing short-run goals of price stability and full employment, relying on a broad set of indicators to guide monetary policy in a changing financial environment. Maintaining this desirable state presents significant challenges as well. As Donald Kohn suggests in his comments on a paper by William Poole, "a central bank believing that it had learned sufficiently from its history to guarantee that it would not repeat its mistakes would be suffering a serious attack of hubris." Looking forward, central bankers in the United States and abroad must grapple with a broad array of questions about how best to conduct monetary policy. How much should the goal of price stability be emphasized relative to th6 goal of employment stability? Does central bank independence aid in achieving either or both of these goals? Does a stable, short-run trade-off between inflation and unemployment exist, and can it be exploited by the central bank? And whether such a short-run trade-off exists or not, is there a long-run trade-off in the variability of employment and inflation? What instrument should the
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