US Agriculture and Climate Change: Perspectives from Recent Research

©1999–2004 CHOICES. All rights reserved. Articles may be reproduced or electronically distributed as long as attribution to Choices and the American Agricultural Economics Association is maintained. Choices subscriptions are free and can be obtained through http://www.choicesmagazine.org. Both weather and climate affect virtually every aspect of agriculture, from the production of crops and livestock to the transportation of agricultural products to market. Agricultural crop production is likely to be affected by both climate change and the associated increase in atmospheric CO2. The projected changes in temperature and precipitation have the potential to affect crop yields either positively or negatively; elevated CO2 levels increase plant photosynthesis and thus crop yields. Changes in climatic conditions are also likely to alter livestock performance and growth, grazing availability, irrigation water supply and demand, pest populations, and incidence of extreme events (floods, droughts, hail, etc.). Economists in association with other disciplines have done many studies investigating the effects of projected climate change on US agriculture. Here I review results from the 1999–2000 US National Assessment conducted by a team of scientists (Reilly et al., 2002, USGCRP). In addition to considering the effects of climate change on markets, this assessment also examined the potential implications of climate change on environmental outcomes. Note that the results in this section focus only on agricultural sector impacts. The National Assessment included analyses of the impacts of climate variability and change for regions in the United States and crosscutting sectoral analyses of agriculture, forestry, water, health, and coastal and marine resources. (For details, see National Assessment Synthesis Team, 2000.) Climate Context