The Determinants of Equity Risk and Their Forecasting Implications: A Quantile Regression Perspective
نویسندگان
چکیده
Several market and macro-level variables influence the evolution of equity risk in addition to the well-known volatility persistence. However, the impact of those covariates might change depending on the risk level, being different between low and high volatility states. By combining equity risk estimates, obtained from the Realized Range Volatility, corrected for microstructure noise and jumps, and quantile regression methods, we evaluate the forecasting implications of the equity risk determinants in different volatility states and, without distributional assumptions on the realized range innovations, we recover both the points and the conditional distribution forecasts. In addition, we analyse how the the relationships among the involved variables evolve over time, through a rolling window procedure. The results show evidence of the selected variables’ relevant impacts and, particularly during periods of market stress, highlight heterogeneous effects across quantiles.
منابع مشابه
Firm Specific Risk and Return: Quantile Regression Application
The present study aims at investigating the relationship between firm specific risk and stock return using cross-sectional quantile regression. In order to study the power of firm specific risk in explaining cross-sectional return, a combination of Fama-Macbeth (1973) model and quantile regression is used. To this aim, a sample of 270 firms listed in Tehran Stock Exchange during 1999-2010 was i...
متن کاملA Quantile Regression Approach to Equity Premium Prediction
We propose a quantile regression approach to equity premium forecasting. Robust point forecasts are generated from a set of quantile forecasts, using both xed and time-varying weighting schemes, thus exploiting the entire distributional information associated with each predictor. Further gains are achieved by incorporating the forecast combination methodology in our quantile regression setting...
متن کاملForecasting Crash risk using Business Strategy, Equity Overvaluation and Conditional Skewness in Stock Price
A firm is called to have stock price crash risk if the firm has a tendency to experience a sudden drop in its stock price. In this study, the relation between the firm-level of business strategy and future stock price crash risk Is examined, as well as the effect of stock overvaluation on the relationship between business strategy and crash risk investigated. Using the strategy index and crash ...
متن کاملAnalysis of the Effect of Financial Supervision Quality on the Credit Risk of Banks in Iran by Quantile Panel Regression
Asymmetric information in financial markets and the possibility of encouraging bank managers to make risky choices can jeopardize the interests of investors. Financial supervision by controlling the riskiness of banks is one of the ways to protect investors. Although the main burden of financing in Iran falls on banks, overdue receivables can undermine this function. In this article, the effect...
متن کاملDependence of Default Probability and Recovery Rate in Structural Credit Risk Models: Empirical Evidence from Greece
The main idea of this paper is to study the dependence between the probability of default and the recovery rate on credit portfolio and to seek empirically this relationship. We examine the dependence between PD and RR by theoretical approach. For the empirically methodology, we use the bootstrapped quantile regression and the simultaneous quantile regression. These methods allow to determinate...
متن کامل