Simulation of Military Logistics Operation in an Underdeveloped Country

For the situations considered, military forces are located in an underrdeveloped country during peacetime. Logistic support of these forces poses problems of many types. The simulation model described in this paper furnishes a method for quantitative investigation of these problems. Procedures are outlined for consideration of the many factors that are involved in a military logistics operation over a stated period of time. To be realistic, the military logistics system is considered to be imbedded in the larger system in which it operates. Some of the inputs and interrelations for this over-all system are controlled by the military forces, by the underdeveloped country, by other countries, etc. A measure of effectiveness is developed to represent the desirability of the over-all system operation from the viewpoint of the military forces and their supporters. This faction attempts to choose the inputs and relationships they control to improve the level of this measure of effectiveness, and there is an opposing faction that attempts to do the opposite. A solution to this situation of conflicting interests involving two factions can be obtained on the basis of simulation results and game theory. This solution furnishes information about optimum operation of the military logistics system in the presence of the many influences to which it Is subjected. I ^ 22 February I963 -3SP-1090fOOi^SL I IMTRODUCnON The military forces requiring logistics support could belong ts T^ -saficrdeveloped country in vh.ich they are located, be from outside this coiii-^*, or both. In all cases, however, their size is large enough to place substanftf-T fiersr^s on the logistics capabilities of the underdeveloped country. UsiialJya t£E~e military forces receive their principal support from one or more ota^r cc3ur:t:ries. A number of problems of a logistics nature are posed by the pE^^^»=e ar tbe military forces in the underdeveloped coxmtry. The logistic deficxsn-iss of" tU.s country may result in a substantial lowering of the potential effecT^^se-sss ©f" the military forces. If the existing logistics capabilities are iBstasg^te, determination of preferable ways of raising these capabilities caa se iz^sr-tan-t. As time pusses, the presence of the military forces has an iir.puct aci ::^ ecacaigr of the underdeveloped country. This could lead to a strong improve^^^fc is t2ae logistic capabilities of this country, to a deterioration of these sajsislll-ties, or to something in between. Investigation of these and many other probleiis can be perfortcafi, ijjr tlie development of a suitable simulation model. However, any realistic ^•Bssiesjeasta.-tion of the military logistics system is almost necessarily of a very ca^Hss^^xS. ssature. Namely, it should allow for the influences of the over-all system it. «*iic2a l^ ia imbedded. Also, the activities performed in logistics are of a dyttsaic -stiire and should be considered under transient conditions, 'niese transients a^r -« ^^^ *■random circumstances or may be deliberate internal aad/or external mStc:s.ts to interfere with the system operation. Thus, a Monte Carlo type of sfTHalat^lra:^ is needed. The development of a simulation model that is both realistic a^ fsssiole is not an easy task. A huge amount of flexibility is required to c^as^M.tas.tA.-v^Lj allow 22 February I965 -^SP-IO90/OOO/OI for the various itiputs, relationships, interactions, types of degradation, types of weapon systems, types of logistics units, tactics and co'mtertactics, geographical effects, economic effects, political effects, etc. that should be included in the model. The complication is greatly magnified by the timedependent and random nature of the problem. To attain feasibility, a large amount of aggregation of effects must be accomplished without substantial loss of realism. AlthOi.^,h concerned with problems involving a large amount of technical detail, the material of this paper is of a descriptive nature. However, the method outlined is a direct extension of an a\'ailable simulation model (see ref. [ll) that X'j expressed in technical tei-Eis. Similarity to the aviailable model should often furnish a strong indication of suitable technical represeritations for the quantities that occur in this extension. For brevity, and to avoid duplication, the reader is referred to ref. [ll for a discussion of the concepts and considerations involved in logistics operation in a randomly damaged system. The material considered here extends that of [l] in two respects. First, a method is outlined for using stepwise aggregation to ultimately place the simulation model in the form presented in [l]. Second, some effects of a more general nature than were considered in [l] occur here, and the model is generalized to include these effects. Also, some discussion is given about measures of effectiveness. Additional discussion of the simulation situation is given in the next section. This is followed by an outline of the kinds of quantities that occur in the simulation model. Development of measures of effectiveness is considered next. The stepwise approach used to develop the needed level of aggregation is outlined in the following section. Representation of the situation in a discrete form, and I fj 22 Februaiy 1965 -5SP-IO9O/OOO/OI i the method used to apply the type of siraulation model that is developed, are t discussed in the next two sections. The final section contains some co^nsnts I concerning the model presented in [l] and its relation to the DK>del considered { in this paper. I . ■