Population dynamics of microtine rodents: an experimental test of the predation hypothesis

One of the most popular hypotheses to explain the 3–5 year vole cycle in Fennoscandia is the predation hypothesis, which emphasises the role of specialist predators, especially small mustelids, in driving the microtine rodent cycle. I have tested this hypothesis in a field experiment with a focus on the interaction between the least weasel (Mustela ni alis ni alis L.) and the field vole (Microtus agrestis L.). The test involved a perturbation of the natural vole-weasel dynamics by increasing the numbers of predators. In natural cyclic dynamics, the numbers of weasels follow the numbers of voles with a time lag; the delay in the numerical response of the predators essentially leads to the cyclic dynamics. In this experiment, I attempted to eliminate the time lag in predators’ numerical response by adding weasels into the system at a point when vole numbers are increasing but weasels are still scarce. The experiment was conducted in three experimental islands (each 5–10 km) using adjacent comparable islands as controls. Results of the experiment did not provide strong evidence either for or against the hypothesis. Two of three experimental areas did not show a treatment effect, while one area showed an effect in both population dynamics and population structure. Unexpectedly, the previously clearly cyclic dynamics were much less regular in the study areas (and elsewhere in southern Finland) during the period of the experiment.