Determinants of OPEC production: Implications for OPEC behavior

We estimate models that identify the economic and organizational determinants of crude oil production by individual OPEC nations. To clarify the interpretation of econometric results, we model production with specifications that resolve the statistical ordering of variables and estimate models with techniques that can cope with stochastic trends in the time series. We also analyze the short-run dynamics for asymmetries that may carry important insights about OPEC behavior. Results indicate that Quotas are an important determinant of production and their effects generally are symmetric, which implies that OPEC is an organization that influences production and ultimately prices. Real prices generally have a positive effect on production and the size of this effect may depend on spare capacity, which implies that OPEC behaviors also embody competitive elements. Finally all nations other than Saudi Arabia show some form of production sharing behavior, which may imply that OPEC shares mismatches between the call for OPEC production and OPEC quotas. © 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.