Contending Parties: A Logistic Choice Analysis of Inter- and Intra-group Blog Citation Dynamics in the 2004 US Presidential Election

The 2004 US Presidential Election cycle marked the debut of Internet-based media such as blogs and social networking websites as institutionally recognized features of the American political landscape. Using a longitudinal sample of all DNC/RNC-designated blog-citation networks we are able to test the influence of various strategic, institutional, and balance-theoretic mechanisms and exogenous factors such as seasonality and political events on the propensity of blogs to cite one another over time. Capitalizing on the temporal resolution of our data, we utilize an autoregressive network regression framework to carry out inference for a logistic choice process. Using a combination of deviance-based model selection criteria and simulation-based model adequacy tests, we identify the combination of processes that best characterizes the choice behavior of the contending blogs. ∗This work was supported in part by grants from US ONR N00014-08-1-1015 and NSF OIA-102839. †Corresponding author: Department of Sociology; 3151 Social Science Plaza A; University of California, Irvine; Irvine, CA 92697-5100; [email protected] ‡Department of Sociology and Institute for Mathematical Behavioral Sciences; University of California, Irvine; [email protected]