Setting Sustainable Development Goals - A Dynamical Systems approach

نویسندگان

  • Shyam Ranganathan
  • Ranjula Bali Swain
چکیده

Employing a novel dynamical system modeling approach with global data, our best-fit model identifies the mechanisms for reducing global greenhouse gas emissions to under 44 gigatonnes of carbondioxide equivalent (GtCO2e) by 2020. Our results show that with a business-as-usual scenario the global emissions will reach 61 GtCO2e by 2020. We test the estimated parameters to suggest options to set the Sustainable Development Goals in the post-2015 scenario. The analysis shows that a democratic equal reduction in the total emissions of all countries would imply a reduction of about 27.6% . The burden of reducing emissions, however, would not change much if the top 25 global emitters (includes, China, India, United States, Canada, Germany etc.) bear the full burden of this reduction. In a business-as-usual scenario where no global emission cuts are implemented, the model suggests that the emission-reduction technology should improve by at least 2.6 percent and tastes and preferences should improve by 3.5 percent, if the global emissions reduction target is to be met. JEL Classifications: C51, C52, C53, C61, Q01, Q50.

برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

ثبت نام

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

منابع مشابه

Searching for the Right to Health in the Sustainable Development Agenda; Comment on “Rights Language in the Sustainable Development Agenda: Has Right to Health Discourse and Norms Shaped Health Goals?”

The United Nations (UN) Sustainable Development Agenda offers an opportunity to realise the right to health for all. The Agenda’s “interlinked and integrated” Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) provide the prospect of focusing attention and mobilising resources not just for the provision of health services through universal health coverage (UHC), but also for addressing the underlying social,...

متن کامل

Setting development goals using stochastic dynamical system models

The Millennium Development Goals (MDG) programme was an ambitious attempt to encourage a globalised solution to important but often-overlooked development problems. The programme led to wide-ranging development but it has also been criticised for unrealistic and arbitrary targets. In this paper, we show how country-specific development targets can be set using stochastic, dynamical system model...

متن کامل

Occupational Health promotion throughout the synergy between ergonomics and sustainable development aspects

One of the main goals of all societies whether in developed or developing countries is sustainable development and quality of life improvement. Both of the mentioned fields are known as critical subjects for urban planners, health care systems authorities, organizations and industrial sectors managers. Sustainable development is a global and human-centered approach. Also, ergonomics as a multid...

متن کامل

Towards Green Building: Sustainability Approach in Building Industrialization

Building construction challenge, in recent years, is the reduction of social, economical and environmentalimpacts along with economical nature and increasing life quality, as here sustainable construction is important. Pre-fabrication and industrialization are referred as a solution of sustainable construction due to some of its main characteristics consisting of many sustainability aspects. Du...

متن کامل

Integration: valuing stakeholder input in setting priorities for socially sustainable egg production.

Setting directions and goals for animal production systems requires the integration of information achieved through internal and external processes. The importance of stakeholder input in setting goals for sustainable animal production systems should not be overlooked by the agricultural animal industries. Stakeholders play an integral role in setting the course for many aspects of animal produ...

متن کامل

ذخیره در منابع من


  با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید

برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

ثبت نام

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

عنوان ژورنال:

دوره   شماره 

صفحات  -

تاریخ انتشار 2014