Risk, Variety and Volatility: Firm Growth Rates and Stock Prices During Early Industry Evolution

The paper studies the patterns of volatility in firm-specific growth rates and stock prices during the early phase of the life-cycle of an old economy industry, the US automobile industry from 1900-1930, and a new economy industry, the US PC industry from 1974-2000. Strikingly similar patterns of volatility are discovered in the early phases of the two industries. The comparison sheds light on the coevolution of industrial and financial volatility and the relationship between this coevolution and mechanisms of Schumpetarian creative destruction. Results also provide insight into the debate on whether firm growth rates follow a random walk (e.g. Gibrat’s Law).