Meterological Model Applications for Estimating Probabilities of Wildland Fires
نویسندگان
چکیده
The National Fire Danger Rating System (NFDRS) indices deduced from RSM 50-km 1-day simulations from January 1998 through December 2003 are used in conjunction with a probability model to determine the expected number of fire occurrences and large fire events. The RSM simulation and forecasts are ongoing experimental products from the Experimental Climate Prediction Center (ECPC) at Scripps Institution of Oceanography. The probability model uses non-parametric logistic regression with spline functions for evaluating relationships between covariates and probabilities of fires. The 1-day RSM simulated NFDRS
منابع مشابه
Proceeding of Joint Statistical Meeting, August 2005, Minneapolis, MN Estimating Risk Probabilities for Wildland Fires
In 2002. there were 88,458 fires reported on federal lands. These fires burned 6,937,584 acres and 2,381 structures costing taxpayers $1.6 billion for fire suppression. On average, 4,215,089 acres of federal lands burn annually. Forecasting wildland fire risk (occurrence and size) is important to fire managers who desire to know the risks of severe events well in advance of their happening. In ...
متن کاملEstimating Risk Probabilities for Wildland Fires
In 2002. there were 88,458 fires reported on federal lands. These fires burned 6,937,584 acres and 2,381 structures costing taxpayers $1.6 billion for fire suppression. On average, 4,215,089 acres of federal lands burn annually. Forecasting wildland fire risk (occurrence and size) is important to fire managers who desire to know the risks of severe events well in advance of their happening. In ...
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