A projected turning point of China’s CO2 emissions ----an analysis of Environmental Kuznets Curve for China

This paper examines the possible existence of an Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) relationship between China’s carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions per capita (CO2/capita) and GDP per capita (GDP/capita) in 1980-2008. The timing of the turning point in China’s CO2/capita can be further estimated if an EKC relationship exists. In regression results, a natural logarithm-quadratic relationship was found between CO2/capita and GDP/capita, which supports the EKC hypothesis. However, China’s CO2 emissions are still on a growing track until around 2078 in the empirical analysis. More importantly, CO2 emissions will not spontaneously decrease if China continues to develop its economy without adopting instruments for mitigating climate change. China’s wealth gap and its role in international trade are discussed as two possible factors to affect EKC hypothesis. Therefore, domestic income inequality reduction and international negotiations to allocate clear responsibilities between China and developed countries for CO2 emissions associated with China’s product exports are suggested to the further efforts.