outputs Turning hindsight into foresight - our search for the
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This paper tells the story of work using Systems thinking to study failure. It describes the methodological developments that have taken place in this area at the Open University and looks at how the emphasis has shifted from the examination of past failures to the prediction and prevention of future failures and the facilitation of organisational learning through the analysis of failures. It ends with an outline of some of the work on systems failures that is currently underway.
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The Open University ’ s repository of research publications and other research outputs Turning hindsight into foresight - our search for the ’ philosopher ’ s stone ’ of failure
This paper tells the story of work using Systems thinking to study failure. It describes the methodological developments that have taken place in this area at the Open University and looks at how the emphasis has shifted from the examination of past failures to the prediction and prevention of future failures and the facilitation of organisational learning through the analysis of failures. It e...
متن کاملTurning hindsight into foresight - our search for the ‘philosopher’s stone’ of failure
This paper tells the story of work using Systems thinking to study failure. It describes the methodological developments that have taken place in this area at the Open University and looks at how the emphasis has shifted from the examination of past failures to the prediction and prevention of future failures and the facilitation of organisational learning through the analysis of failures. It e...
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Once people know the outcome of an event, they tend to overestimate what could have been anticipated in foresight. Although typically considered to be a robust phenomenon, this hindsight bias is subject to moderating circumstances. In their meta-analysis, Christensen-Szalanski and Willham (1991) observed that the more experience people have with the task under consideration, the smaller is the ...
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