Sleeping Beauty Reconsidered: Conditioning and Reflection in Asynchronous Systems
نویسنده
چکیده
A careful analysis of conditioning in the Sleeping Beauty problem is done, using the formal model for reasoning about knowledge and probability developed by Halpern and Tuttle. While the Sleeping Beauty problem has been viewed as revealing problems with conditioning in the presence of imperfect recall, the analysis done here reveals that the problems are not so much due to imperfect recall as to asynchrony. The implications of this analysis for van Fraassen’s Reflection Principle and Savage’s Sure-Thing Principle are considered.
منابع مشابه
Everettian Confirmation and Sleeping Beauty: Reply to Wilson
In Bradley ([2011b]), I offered an analysis of Sleeping Beauty and the Everettian interpretation of quantum mechanics (EQM). I argued that one can avoid a kind of easy confirmation of EQM by paying attention to observation selection effects, that halfers are right about Sleeping Beauty, and that thirders cannot avoid easy confirmation for the truth of EQM. Wilson ([forthcoming]) agrees with my ...
متن کاملSleeping Beauty in Flatland
I describe in this paper a solution to the Sleeping Beauty problem. I begin with the consensual emerald case and I also discuss Bostrom's Incubator gedanken. I address then the Sleeping Beauty problem. I argue that the root cause of the flaw in the argument for 1/3 is an erroneous assimilation with a repeated experiment. Lastly, I present an informative variant of the original Sleeping Beauty e...
متن کاملSleeping Beauty and the Problem of World Reduction
I describe in this paper a solution to the Sleeping Beauty problem. I begin with the consensual emerald case and discuss then Bostrom's Incubator gedanken. I address then the Sleeping Beauty problem. I argue that the root cause of the flaw in the argument for 1/3 is an erroneous assimilation with a repeated experiment. I show that the same type of analysis also applies to Elga's version of the ...
متن کاملChanging minds in a changing world
I defend a general rule for updating beliefs that takes into account both the impact of new evidence and changes in the subject’s location. The rule combines standard conditioning with a “shifting” operation that moves the center of each doxastic possibility forward to the next point where information arrives. I show that well-known arguments for conditioning lead to this combination when cente...
متن کاملComparison of Lentiviral and Sleeping Beauty Mediated αβ T Cell Receptor Gene Transfer
Transfer of tumour antigen-specific receptors to T cells requires efficient delivery and integration of transgenes, and currently most clinical studies are using gamma retroviral or lentiviral systems. Whilst important proof-of-principle data has been generated for both chimeric antigen receptors and αβ T cell receptors, the current platforms are costly, time-consuming and relatively inflexible...
متن کامل