Discovering and Managing New Product Blockbusters: The Magic and Science of Prediction Markets
نویسنده
چکیده
New product innovation is a strategic business activity that requires significant financial resources and considerable managerial attention. Most new product launches fail because existing methods are unable to forecast their commercial successes accurately. This article describes a market-based method to address this gap. It capitalizes on the power of the “wisdom of crowds” by allowing people to interact in organized markets governed by well-defined rules. The working of these markets relies on five scientific principles referred to as IC (pronounced as “I foresee”). These markets motivate people to share information freely through a price discovery process. Prediction markets seek information aggregation from a large group of diverse individuals by encouraging active participation. The power of the markets is demonstrated with real application examples from a wide variety of industries.
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