Using Scenarios in Regional Strategic Transportation Planning: an Evolving Methodology

This thesis explores the application of scenario planning to regional strategic transportation planning (RSTP). Like all strategic planning, RSTP takes place in the presence of uncertainty, requiring flexibility and systematic thinking. The work presented builds on that of Mufioz in his application of scenarios to Mendoza, Argentina and the Cooperative Mobility Program ReS/SITE team's scenario-based analysis of Houston, Texas. While these examples demonstrated the usefulness and applicability of scenarios to the RSTP context, several methodological shortcomings have been identified. This thesis addresses some of these shortcomings. There are four major components to this thesis. First, this thesis provides substantial background on the concept of scenarios and illustrates their application in regional strategic transportation planning. The history of scenarios as a planning tool, a framework for RSTP based on scenarios, a scenario development methodology, and several applications of scenarios are discussed in detail. Second, it provides a framework for integrating scenarios into a region's ongoing regional strategic transportation planning process based on a four phase "strategic conversation" as defined by Peter Schwartz. Third, it defines the concept of regional architecture and describes how it can be used to develop organizational strategies. Scenarios are important for informing these regional architecture choices and they provide a framework for evaluating different organizational strategies. Fourth and finally, it proposes that regional strategic planning needs to be considered in a comprehensive manner. Transportation strategies are only a part of the puzzle a region must solve to ensure its competitive position in the global economy. The pieces of a region's competitive strategy are discussed and the concept of scalable scenarios is introduced as a way to approach regional strategic planning. Thesis Advisor: Joseph M. Sussman Title: JR East Professor Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering