Renewable Integration in Island Electricity Systems - A System Dynamics Assessment

Island electricity systems tend to rely heavily on the use of fossil fuels for the everyday supply of customer needs, so there are both significant economic and environmental benefits from the decarbonisation of these systems. One such key global environmental benefit is the anticipated reduction in CO2 emissions and its associated effects on climate change. In recognition, many islands are already pursuing ambitious goals for renewable energy sources integration. The resulting effects of policy on the long-term investment decisions however, need to be better understood. This paper presents a system dynamics simulation model which evaluates the adoption and diffusion of renewable generation sources within an existing island electricity system. In particular, renewable sources within the Azorean island of São Miguel are considered, with findings revealing that the requisite long-term investments are framed by the local experience of the renewable technologies and the pursuit of further renewable integration policy targets.