Below replacement-level fertility in Iran: Progress and Prospects

In 1996, four provinces of Iran experienced below replacement level fertility. Since the early 1980s, these provinces have recorded lower fertility than the national level. How and under what condition has fertility declined to such a low level in these provinces? It may be of considerable interest to examine whether these provinces can be regarded as the leaders of the fertility transition in Iran. What are the likely the effects of below-replacement fertility on population growth in Iran in the short term? Will Iran, as a whole, experience below replacement fertility in the near future? What would be the reaction of the government if below-replacement level fertility is reached in the near future? This paper will first, assess and analyse the fertility trends in the provinces of Isfahan, Gilan, Semnan and Tehran as compared with the national level during the period 1972-1996. Using available data, an attempt will also be made to estimate recent fertility levels for these provinces. Second, demographic and socio-economic characteristics, as well as contraceptive use, in these provinces will be reviewed; female singulate mean age at marriage and age-specific proportions married for 1976, 1986 and 1996 will then be examined. Third, the prospects of low fertility in Iran as well as the likely reaction of the government on low fertility will be discussed thereafter. Introduction The onset of modest fertility decline in Iran appeared, mainly in urban areas, in the early1970. Fertility increased during 1976 to 1987, before the renewal of the family planning programme since 1988. These changes coincide rather neatly with three political periods: the later stages of the Shah’s regime; the Islamic Revolution and the war against Iraq; and a subsequent period of renewed modernization and pragmatism. There have also been shifts in population policy that took place over the same periods: antinatalism and a government sponsored family planning programme in the later stages of the Shah’s regime; denunciation of family planning and encouragement of early marriage in the post-Revolutionary period; and a pragmatic return to antinatalism in the post1988 period (Abbasi-Shavazi et al. 2000). Fertility has declined dramatically since the adoption of a new population policy in 1988. This sharp decline has occurred in most provinces and in both rural and urban areas. Total fertility rate has sharply declined from around 6.3 in 1 I am grateful to Peter McDonald for his encouragement and generous support. Valuable comments received from Amir Mehryar, Mohammad Mirzaie and Chris Wilson on an earlier draft of this paper is gratefully acknowledged. Thanks also to Neamat Nassiri, Director General of the Socio-economic Household Statistics, the Statistical Center of Iran, and Bahram Delavar Director General of the Department of Family Health, Ministry of Health for providing the data necessary for this paper, and to Farzaneh Tajdini and Meimenat Hosseini for their assistance.