Modeling Classical Swine Fever Outbreak-Related Outcomes

The study was carried out to estimate classical swine fever (CSF) outbreak-related outcomes, such as epidemic duration and number of infected, vaccinated, and depopulated premises, using defined most likely CSF outbreak scenarios. Risk metrics were established using empirical data to select the most likely CSF outbreak scenarios in Indiana. These scenarios were simulated using a stochastic between-premises disease spread model to estimate outbreak-related outcomes. A total of 19 single-site (i.e., with one index premises at the onset of an outbreak) and 15 multiple-site (i.e., with more than one index premises at the onset of an outbreak) outbreak scenarios of CSF were selected using the risk metrics. The number of index premises in the multiple-site outbreak scenarios ranged from 4 to 32. The multiple-site outbreak scenarios were further classified into clustered (N = 6) and non-clustered (N = 9) groups. The estimated median (5th, 95th percentiles) epidemic duration (days) was 224 (24, 343) in the single-site and was 190 (157, 251) and 210 (167, 302) in the clustered and non-clustered multiple-site outbreak scenarios, respectively. The median (5th, 95th percentiles) number of infected premises was 323 (0, 488) in the single-site outbreak scenarios and was 529 (395, 662) and 465 (295, 640) in the clustered and non-clustered multiple-site outbreak scenarios, respectively. Both the number and spatial distributions of the index premises affected the outcome estimates. The results also showed the importance of implementing vaccinations to accommodate depopulation in the CSF outbreak controls. The use of routinely collected surveillance data in the risk metrics and disease spread model allows end users to generate timely outbreak-related information based on the initial outbreak's characteristics. Swine producers can use this information to make an informed decision on the management of swine operations and continuity of business, so that potential losses could be minimized during a CSF outbreak. Government authorities might use the information to make emergency preparedness plans for CSF outbreak control.