Detection of Tornado Frequency Trend Over Ontario, Canada
نویسندگان
چکیده
An upward trend in Ontario tornado frequency (about 1.6 tornadoes/decade with the statistically significant level at least at 95%) is identified using three independent approaches. The first method is the conventional linear regression method that had no disturbance to the original tornado time series. The second approach is to employ the Mann-Kendall test with consideration of removing a lag one autoregressive process. The trend is further firmed up using the Monte Carlo simulation. The robustness of the detected tornado frequency trend presented in this work offers an example for tornado frequency trend analysis over other regions of the world. It is shown in this study that the Ontario tornado frequency is linked to ENSO (El Niño/Southern Oscillation) signals with a statistically significant level at 99%.
منابع مشابه
Effect of Short- and Long-term Memory on Trend Significancy of Mean Annual Flow by Mann-Kendall Test
Climate variability and change is threatening water resources around the world. One hundred and fourtheen (114) stations from Reference Hydrometric Basin Network (RHBN) around Canada with at least 30 years continuous data (up to 2011) were selected to study the trend in mean annual runoff for different periods of 30 to 100 years in step 10 years by non-parametric Mann-Kendall test. Effect of sh...
متن کاملEffects of Atomic Explosions on the Frequency of Tornadoes in the United States
The upward trend in reported tornadoes during the past few years has led many people to suspect that atomic explosions are responsible for the increase. Because there is no known physical reason for believing that atomic explosions should affect the tornado frequency, the records of tornadoes and atomic explosions are examined in considerable detail to find evidence which will support or contra...
متن کاملPeak tornado activity is occurring earlier in the heart of Tornado Alley
Tornado frequency may increase as the factors that contribute to severe convection are altered by a changing climate. Attributing changes in tornado frequency to observed global climate change is complicated because observational effort has increased over time, but studies of the seasonal distribution of tornado activity may avoid sampling biases. We demonstrate that peak tornado activity has s...
متن کاملStress- Corrosion Crack Initiation of High-strength Pipeline Steel in Near-neutral pH Environments
Stress-corrosion cracking (SCC) tests were conducted in the near-neutral pH standard solution, NS4, and in an actual soil solution, using four-point bending at a high stress ratio and low frequency conditions very similar to those of operational pipelines. Pitting incubation appeared first and then pitting initiated and grew in both solutions although there were many more pits on the specimen t...
متن کاملLow-Frequency Atmospheric Acoustic Energy Associated with Vortices Produced by Thunderstorms
An infrasonic observatory collocated with the Colorado State University CHILL radar during the summer of 1995 permitted unique comparisons between severe storm kinematics and detected acoustic energy at subaudible frequencies near 1 Hz. Radar observations of a velocity couplet aloft (evolving into a tornado) showed a circulation maximum descending for about 30 min while moving to the east. The ...
متن کامل