Exploring Technology Scenarios with an Input-Output Model

The dynamic IO model DIMITRI will be used for explorations of long-term scenarios on technology and demand. The model describes at a sectoral level the relationships between consumption, production and emissions. Technology per sector is described by the inputs from other sectors (represented by IO coefficients) and capital, labour and emission coefficients. Since these coefficients are not stable over time, they have to be constructed for future years. The paper will present a methodology for projecting these coefficients for different scenarios. The methodology combines trend analysis with detailed information of specific technologies per sector, which differentiates between scenarios. The adjustment of coefficients influences model outcomes such as production, balance of trade and emissions. The paper outlines the methodology and presents the main outcomes for four scenarios for the period 20002030.