3. Prediction, Forecasting, and Chance Discovery

12. Prediction, Forecasting, and Chance Discovery

1. Methodological Considerations on Chance Discovery

This paper investigates the methodological foundations of a new research field called chance discovery, which aims to detect future opportunities and risks. By drawing on concepts from cybernetics and system theory, it is argued that chance discovery best applies to open systems that are equipped with regulatory and anticipatory mechanisms. Non-determinism, freedom (entropy) and open systems pr...

Grey Prediction Model for Forecasting Electricity consumption

Accurate prediction of the future electricity consumption is crucial for production electricity management. Since the storage of electrical energy is very difficult, reliable and accurate prediction of power consumption is important. Different approaches for this purpose were used. In this paper, Grey model (1,1) based on grey system theory has been used for forecasting results. Annual electric...

Groundwater Level Forecasting Using Wavelet and Kriging

In this research, a hybrid wavelet-artificial neural network (WANN) and a geostatistical method were proposed for spatiotemporal prediction of the groundwater level (GWL) for one month ahead. For this purpose, monthly observed time series of GWL were collected from September 2005 to April 2014 in 10 piezometers around Mashhad City in the Northeast of Iran. In temporal forecasting, an artificial...

Forecasting of Covid-19 cases based on prediction using artificial neural network curve fitting technique

Artificial neural network is considered one of the most efficient methods in processing huge data sets that can be analyzed computationally to reveal patterns, trends, prediction, forecasting etc. It has a great prospective in engineering as well as in medical applications. The present work employs artificial neural network-based curve fitting techniques in prediction and forecasting of the Cov...