The 2007 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America

This study explored whether people living to 100 and beyond were any different from their peers at their middle age (30 years) in terms of their physical characteristics (height and ‘build’). An individual’s height at young adult age seems to be a good indicator of person’s early nutritional and infectious disease history at least in historical data. The study took advantage of a new unique data resource – the US WWI Civilian Draft Registration Cards collected in 1917-1918, which covers 98% (24 millions) of the entire US male population at draft ages of 18-45 years. The US WWI draft cards were linked to exceptional longevity records obtained from the Social Security Administration database. The linked data were analyzed using a conditional multiple regression model for matched case-control studies to find out what combinations of the middle-life predictor variables are conductive for exceptional longevity in the United States. Introduction Centenarians (persons living to age 100 and over) represent a population, which could be useful in identifying factors leading to long life and avoidance of fatal diseases. Even if some middle-life factors have a moderate protective effect on risk of death, persons with this trait/condition would be accumulated among long-lived individuals. Thus, study of centenarians may be a sensitive way to find genetic, familial, environmental, and life-course factors associated with lower mortality and better survival. Incorporation of physical characteristics into demographic analysis of mortality widens a scope of explanatory variables in biodemographic research on health outcomes (Crimmins and Seeman 2000). This study investigates the effects of the physical traits – height and ‘build’ at young age on the chances of survival to age 100. Height is an important indicator of childhood nutritional status and exposure to early infections. An individual’s height at young adult age seems to be a good indicator of person’s nutritional and infectious disease history at least in historical data (Elo and Preston 1992; Alter 2004; Alter, Neven et al. 2004). Most studies, starting with Waaler’s pioneer work, found a negative relationship between body height and mortality later in life (Waaler 1984; Elo and Preston 1992). A study of Union Army veterans found that the relationship between height and subsequent mortality was negative (Costa 1993; Fogel and Costa 1997; Costa and Lahey 2005), findings similar to a study of modern Norwegian males (Costa 1993; Costa 1993; Fogel and Costa 1997; Costa and Lahey 2005). Infectious diseases (and diarrhoeal diseases in particular) can result in growth retardation leading to shorter adult height. For example, conscripts from high-mortality districts of antebellum New York were shorter than those from healthier districts (Haines, Craig et al. 2003).