A Fuel Cost Comparison of Electric and Gas-Powered Vehicles

In this study, we estimate variable fuel costs and total energy consumption for grid-powered electric cars using eight-year forecasts of cost per kilowatt hour for US national data coupled with real data distributions derived by daily electronic tracking the performance of a single Nissan Leaf located in Texas. These fuel costs are estimated based on a stochastic driving distance, then costs are estimated for various fuel efficiencies, with predicted gasoline cost structure based on a simple, deterministic forecasting model. We also use time series analysis of the average cost per gallon of gasoline and the same driving distribution to estimate the cost for several gas-powered cars. We incorporate two Design of Experiment factors that might be adjusted during the vehicle manufacturing process, estimated average miles per gallon for gas-powered cars operating under fixed conditions, and estimated average miles per kilowatt hour for electric cars operating under fixed conditions. We develop a Monte Carlo simulation to analyze the cost differential between electric versus gas-powered cars. Using data from the simulation, we compare the fuel cost structure and provide some limited discussion of vehicle acquisition and residual costs.