A Gm(1,1)–markov Chain Combined Model with an Application to Predict the Energy Consumption per Unit of Gdp in China
نویسندگان
چکیده
In this paper, by further using the idea of equal dimension and new information,we propose a new dynamic analysis model which combines the unbiased first-order one-variable grey differential equation model (abbreviated as UGM(1,1) model) from grey system theory and Markov chain model from stochastic process theory. We abbreviate the new combined GM(1,1)–Markov chain (MC) model as ED&NI-MCUGM(1,1) model. This combined model takes advantage of the high predictable power of GM(1,1) model and at the same time takes advantage of the prediction power of Markov chain modelling on the discretized states. As an example, we use the statistical data of the energy consumption per unit of GDP in China from 1991 to 2011 for a validation of the effectiveness of the ED&NI-MCUGM(1,1) model.
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