Integrated Scenarios of Regional Development in Two Semi-Arid States of North-Eastern Brazil

Scenario analysis of the future is an important tool for supporting sustainability-oriented regional planning. To assist regional planning in two federal states in semi-arid North-eastern Brazil, Cear a and Piauı́, we developed integrated qualitative–quantitative scenarios that show potential developments of the agricultural and water resources situation as well as the internal migration until the year 2025. In these states, regional development is negatively influenced by the high seasonality of rainfall and El-Ni~no-related drought years. Two reference scenarios, ‘‘Coastal Boom and Cash Crops’’ and ‘‘Decentralisation – Integrated Rural Development,’’ were developed. First, story lines were created and the development of the driving forces was quantified. Then, an integrated model, which includes modules for simulating water availability, water demand, and agricultural production and income, was applied to compute the temporal development of relevant system indicators in each of the 332 municipalities of Cear a and Piauı́. These indicators encompass the fraction of the irrigation water demand than can be satisfied, the volume of water which is stored in the reservoirs at the beginning of the dry season, agricultural productivity and production as well as the internal migration among scenario regions. In addition, the impact of certain policy measures was assessed in the context of both reference scenarios. Reference and intervention scenarios were derived by an interdisciplinary group of scientists and were discussed and refined during policy workshops with planning agencies of Cear a.