Ignoring Ignorance Is Ignorant
نویسنده
چکیده
When prior probabilities are given as data, there is generally little objection to the use of the Bayes formula or Bayesian networks. On the other hand, when prior probabilities are lacking, Bayesians have the tendency to ignore their ignorance and to make the priors up out of thin air. This leads to decisions in situations where gathering more information would be more appropriate. This paper uses the theory of hints to discuss Dempster-Shafer theory as a formalism for uncertain reasoning designed to properly deal with the distinction between uncertainty and
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