Interest rate and stock return volatility indices for the Eurozone. Investors ́ gauges of fear during the recent financial crisis

We suggest a methodology for the construction of a set of interest rate volatility indices for the Eurozone (EIRVIXs) based on the implied volatility quotes of caps (floors), one of the most liquid interest rate derivatives. These indices reflect the market’s aggregate expectation of volatility of forward rates over both shortand long-term horizons (from one to ten years ahead). Volatility indices in equity markets are referred to as investors’ gauges of fear because they usually spike in periods of market turmoil. In this paper, we extend the empirical evidence by analyzing the effect of the recent financial crisis on shortand long-term EIRVIXs. We find that the level of short-term EIRVIXs (70%) as of April 2012 is still far from returning to the average pre-crisis value (17%) and that the crisis has also affected investors’ long-term expectations of volatility. In addition, using two stock return volatility indices for the Eurozone, we find that the crisis has had a deeper impact on investors’ uncertainty about the evolution of interest rates than on stock market returns.