Estimating Supply Elasticity for Disaggregated Paper Products: A Primal Approach

Most existing elasticity estimates for the pulp and paper industry are based on aggregate products (e.g., total paper, paperboard, or paper except newsprint). Using United States data, we present and evaluate econometric output supply models for four relatively disaggregated paper products: newsprint paper (NP), printing/writing paper (PWP), tissue paper (TP), and packaging paper (PP). Sample periods vary from 14 years for PP (1987–2001) to 20 years for NP and PWP (1981–2001). Each paper type is specified using a two-stage least squares geometric distributed lag model in log–log form using monthly data. Estimated long-run (short-run) output price elasticities are 2.75 (0.69) for NP, 2.45 (1.07) for PWP, 1.77 (1.77) for TP, and 0.41 (0.24) for PP. Input demand elasticities for capital, wood fiber, labor, electricity, and wastepaper are also estimated for each paper type. FOR. SCI. 51(6):570–577.