Curing Analytic Pathologies: Pathways to Improved Intelligence Analysis

expressed in this study are those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect official positions or views of the Central Intelligence Agency or any other US Government entity, past or present. Nothing in the contents should be construed as asserting or implying US Government endorsement of the study's factual statements and interpretations. The Center for the Study of Intelligence (CSI) was founded in 1974 in response to Director of Central Intelligence James Schlesinger's desire to create within CIA an organization that could " think through the functions of intelligence and bring the best intellects available to bear on intelligence problems. " The Center, comprising professional historians and experienced practitioners, attempts to document lessons learned from past activities, explore the needs and expectations of intelligence consumers, and stimulate serious debate on current and future intelligence challenges. In carrying out its mission, CSI publishes Studies in Intelligence, as well as books and monographs addressing historical, operational, doctrinal, and theoretical aspects of the intelligence profession. It also administers the CIA Museum and maintains the Agency's Historical Intelligence Collection. Acknowledgments The journey that produced this study owes much to many people. Some of them can be named, others cannot; but all of them have my deepest appreciation and deserve to be acknowledged for their support in this effort. And to my wife Lisa, who can be named— special thanks for putting up with me throughout. I began to appreciate the depth of the Intelligence Community's analytic problems during a series of research and analysis efforts for various of its components starting in the mid-1990s, and I would like to thank the sponsors of those many efforts even though they cannot be named. Frank Jenkins, General Manager of Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC) Strategies Group, deserves special praise for allowing Fritz Ermarth and me to follow our instincts and start to investigate these issues before the failures became so very public. Particular thanks are owed to Henry Abarbanel for a discussion of the contrasts between the practice of science and that of intelligence analysis, a conversation that prompted me to focus on the deep cultural and process factors that affect analytic efforts rather than on the superficial symptoms and manifestations of the failures. (CISAC) for inviting me to give a seminar on intelligence issues that forced me to organize and sharpen my concerns into the original briefing on " Analytic Pathologies, " and I …