Homes and Husbands for All: Marriage, Housing, and the Baby Boom

The U.S. experienced an unprecedented increase in fertility during the baby boom. After falling for a century and a half, fertility rates jumped by 45 percent from 1945 to 1955, before resuming their decline in 1965. The elevated birth rates from 1946 to 1964 were driven in part by a shift toward more universal marriage; marriage rates increased by 25 percent from 1930 to 1950 and the average age of marriage fell by two years. This paper argues that growth in the supply of housing after World War II contributed to the expansion of marriage during this period. Specifically, the paper estimates the effect of additional building permits (a proxy for housing supply) at the city level on individual marriage outcomes. An instrumental variable approach is used to address endogenous permit location. I construct an annual level instrument using the national permit series in conjunction with a city’s geographical constraints, region and average temperature. I find a standard deviation increase in permits to a city increased the probability of marriage in that city by 13 to 16 percent over a two-year period. The estimates suggest that the growth in housing supply in the late 1940s can explain about 33 percent of the difference in marriage rates between 1930 and 1950. Overall, the increase in housing supply can account for nearly ten percent of the baby boom.