Analytic Modeling of Insurgencies
نویسنده
چکیده
Legacy force-on-force models are symmetrical; they reflect the fact that the dynamics of both sides in the conflict is governed by similar rules. These models have also traditionally focused on the physical aspects of armed conflicts – fire, attrition, detection, movement, logistics, etc. Insurgency models are different in two key aspects: (a) they are asymmetrical and (b) they contain, in addition to the physical aspects, significant cognitive, social, cultural, political and economic factors. The reason for the asymmetry is the way insurgents evolve and operate, and the emergence of non-physical factors is due to the major role of civilians in such conflicts. This article focuses on analytic modeling of insurgencies and counterinsurgency operations, describing both the physical and non-physical components of such armed conflicts.
منابع مشابه
Modeling Insurgent Dynamics Including Heterogeneity A Statistical Physics Approach
Despite the myriad complexities inherent in human conflict, a common pattern has been identified across a wide range of modern insurgencies and terrorist campaigns involving the severity of individual events—namely an approximate power-law x−α with exponent α ≈ 2.5. We recently proposed a simple toy model to explain this finding, built around the reported loose and transient nature of operation...
متن کاملModeling Insurgencies and Counterinsurgencies
A system dynamics model of insurgencies is built using the US. Army and Marine Counterinsurgency Manual (FM 3-24) as a basis. It must, however, be supplemented by additional theory from outside sources to enable calibration to a historical data set. Parameter and policy analyses are conducted. These highlight the criticality of some features of insurgencies described by FM 3-24 such as the impo...
متن کاملGovernments, Civilians, and the Evolution of Insurgency: Modeling the Early Dynamics of Insurgencies
This paper models the early dynamics of insurgency using an agent-based computer simulation of civilians, insurgents, and soldiers. In the simulation, insurgents choose to attack government forces, which then strike back. Such government counterattacks may result in the capture or killing of insurgents, may make nearby civilians afraid to become insurgents, but may also increase the anger of su...
متن کاملThe Urbanization of Insurgency : Shifts in the Geography of Conflict
The 20"' century witnessed the steady decline of the ability of states, particularly great powers, to defeat insurgencies. During the same period, the world has become both more populous and more urban. As people have taken to the cities, so too have insurgents increasingly made battlefields out of urban areas. This study has sought to determine the impact of urbanization on insurgency outcomes...
متن کاملApproaches to Modeling Insurgency
For the purposes of this paper, we define insurgency as an organized movement that uses armed violence to overthrow a country’s government while often hiding within the civilian population and using civilians to perform combat support functions. The use of civilian population differentiates insurgency from the regular warfare where such an exploitation of civilians would constitute a war crime....
متن کامل