Incomplete Information and Strategic Learning in Technology Adoption and Diffusion
نویسنده
چکیده
We study an incomplete information dynamic game of a finite number of agents adopting a new technology with pure information externalities. Each agent has private information about his idiosyncratic adoption cost, but shares the same public information released by early adopters about the technology’s efficiency. We show that a unique symmetric pure strategy Perfect Bayesian equilibrium exists. The adoption process may start late and stop temporarily, but ends in finite periods almost surely with a positive probability that some adopters are worse off. Strategic delay prolongs the adoption process, reduces the long-run adoption rate, and in itself can cause the diffusion path to be logistic. More efficient communication about the technology slows down early adoption, but speeds up the diffusion in later periods. More efficient communication about agent types tends to speed up early adoption.
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