Rates of return to sorghum and millet research investments: A meta-analysis

Sorghum and millet grow in some of the most heterogeneous and austere agroecologies around the world. These crops are amongst the top five cereal sources of food and feed. Yet, few studies document the impact of sorghum and millet genetic enhancement. The Internal Rate of Return (ROR) is one of the most popular metrics used to measure the economic return on investment on agricultural research and development (R&D). This study conducted a meta-analysis of 59 sorghum and millet ROR estimates obtained from 25 sources published between 1958 and 2015. The average rate of return to sorghum and millet R&D investment is between 54-76 percent per year. All studies computed social rather than private RORs because the technologies were developed using public funds originating from host country National Agricultural Research Systems (NARS) and international organizations such as the INTSORMIL CRSP, ICRISAT and others. Nearly three quarter of the studies focused only on sorghum (72 percent) and around one tenth of the studies (8 percent) on millet. Regression models analyzed the determinants of variation in the reported RORs. Results show that ex-ante type and self-evaluated type of analyses are positively and significantly associated with the ROR estimates. Compared to estimates conducted by a university, results from international institutions and other mixed organizations provided significantly smaller estimates. Estimates conducted at national level also are significantly lower than those conducted at sub-national levels. The ROR is higher for studies conducted in the United States and for those conducted more recently. The study also reconstructed modified internal rate of return (MIRR) for a sub-sample of the reported RORs following recent methods from the literature. These results show that the MIRR estimates are significantly smaller than the reported ROR estimates. Both results indicate that investment in sorghum and millet research generates high social rates of return.