Nuclear Proliferation Dynamics and Conventional Conflict∗

New nuclear nations are more prone to militarized conflict, though the overall effect of nuclear weapons on conventional disputes is neutral (Horowitz 2009, Gartzke & Jo 2009). Several processes might explain the non-linear relationship between proliferation and conflict. Nominal nuclear status could constitute a capability shock, altering the balance of power and increasing the probability of disputes. Alternately, proliferation might introduce uncertainty about relative power, again increasing the risk of conflict. Familiarity with nuclear weapons should allow countries to manage conflict more effectively, even as a growing nuclear stockpile may exacerbate tensions. Informational factors (uncertainty and learning) are statistically significant determinants of conflict, while material factors (nuclear status and stockpiles) are not so salient. ∗An early draft of this paper was presented at the 50th Annual Convention of the International Studies Association, New York, February 15-18, 2009. I thank Michael Horowitz and Alexander Montgomery for comments. I am indebted to Michael in particular for inspiring this project with his own research on the effects of nuclear proliferation over time. Gina Martinez provided research assistance. A STATA “do” file replicating the analysis is available from the author upon publication. †University of California San Diego, Department of Political Science, 9500 Gilman Ave., Room 327 Social Sciences Bldg., La Jolla, CA 92093-0521, USA. E-mail: [email protected].