Earthquake Risk Management: A Scenario Generator

Interim Reports on work of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis receive only limited review. Views or opinions expressed herein do not necessarily represent those of the Institute, its National Member Organizations, or other organizations supporting the work. Abstract This paper presents a software package EDGE, an Earthquake and Damage Generator/ Estimator for Toscana, Italy. EDGE creates samples of multidimensional distributions of damage using models of geophysical processes, seismic-geophysical data and a catalog of vulnerability of buildings in the region. The main algorithmic elements: seismic maps, geophysical formulas, and stochastic modeling, are described in detail. The work contributes to a joint research program of Dynamic Systems, and Risk Modeling and Society projects on data-based methodological support for decision making in the insurance industry against risks of natural catastrophes. The designed catalogs of expected damages can be used for actuarial calculations and optimization of the regional insurance portfolio. iv Acknowledgments The authors would like to thank A.Amendola, Yu.Ermoliev, A.Kryazhimskii, and A.Tarasiev for their scientific advice and help during the work on this paper. This work could not be done without the data and formulas provided by Prof. Petrini from IRRS (Istituto per la' Ricerca sul Rischio Sismico, CNR, Milan, Italy) whose cooperation is gratefully acknowledged. Serguei Baranov ([email protected]) Boris Digas ([email protected]) Tatiana Ermolieva ([email protected]) Valerii Rozenberg ([email protected])