NEW FRONTIERS IN APPLIED PROBABILITY A Festschrift for SØREN ASMUSSEN Edited by P. GLYNN, T. MIKOSCH and T. ROLSKI Part 5. Stochastic growth and branching THE SIZE OF A MAJOR EPIDEMIC OF A VECTOR-BORNE DISEASE
نویسنده
چکیده
Based on a simple model due to Dietz, it is shown that the size of a major epidemic of a vector-borne disease with basic reproduction ratio R0 > 1 is dominated by the size of a standard SIR (susceptible–infected–removed) epidemic with direct host-to-host transmission of disease and the same R0. Further bounds and numerical illustrations are provided, broadly spanning situations where the size of the epidemic is short of infecting almost all those susceptible. The total size is moderately sensitive to changes in the population parameters that contribute to R0, so that the fluctuating behaviour in ‘annual’ epidemics is not surprising.
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