Using Multi-agent Simulation to Improve the Security of Maritime Transit
نویسندگان
چکیده
Despite their use for modeling traffic in ports and regional waters, multi-agent simulations have not yet been applied to model maritime traffic on a global scale. We therefore propose a fully agent-based, data-driven model of global maritime traffic, focusing primarily on modeling transit through piracy-affected waters. The model employs finite state machines to represent the behavior of several classes of vessels and can accurately replicate global shipping patterns and approximate realworld distribution of pirate attacks. We apply the model to the problem of optimizing the Gulf of Aden group transit. The results demonstrate the usefulness of agent-based modeling for evaluating and improving operational counter-piracy policies and measures. Due to its inherent dynamism, distribution and complexity of dependencies, traffic and transportation is a domain particularly suitable for the application of multi-agent techniques. This has been reflected in the number of multi-agent simulations developed in the field of air traffic (e.g. [18]) and ground transportation [2,14]. The key motivation behind these models is to better understand the behavior of transportation systems and to evaluate novel mechanisms for improving it. In the maritime domain, existing models focus on traffic in ports and regional, near shore waters [3,15,10]. High-level equation-based models are typically used, which have difficulties capturing vessel interactions and more complex dynamics of maritime traffic. In contrast, our proposed model focuses on modeling global maritime traffic and employs a fully agent-based, microsimulation approach. Such a model is pivotal in the development of measures for countering the complex problem of maritime piracy, which presents a growing threat to global shipping industry and consequently international trade. In 2010 alone, 53 merchant vessels were hijacked and 1181 crew members held hostage [11] and the numbers continued to rise in the first half of 2011. The proposed simulation model is the first agent-based model focusing on maritime traffic and piracy. It models the operation of all key actors in piracy scenarios, i.e., the long-range merchant vessels, pirate vessels and navy patrols. Although the simulation is geared towards maritime piracy, it is rather general 2 O. Vaněk, M. Jakob, O. Hrstka, M. Pěchouček Fig. 1: Locations of pirate incidents over the last 5 years. and applicable to other problems in maritime transportation. As an illustrative application, we apply the simulation to optimize the group transit scheme established to improve the security of transit through the notorious Gulf of Aden. Section 1 provides a brief introduction to the domain and reviews current anti-piracy measures. Sections 2.1, 2.2 and 2.3 describe agent-based models of three main classes of vessels. Section 3 describes implementation aspects of the proposed models and Section 4 discusses model validation. Finally, Section 5 describes the application to group transit scheme optimization.
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