Trajectory Modeling Accuracy for Air Traffic Management Decision Support Tools

Future air traffic management (ATM) decision support systems (DSS) rely upon trajectory forecasting to adequately deliver benefits. These forecasts are subject to errors from a variety of sources. As the number and sophistication of ATM DSS capabilities grow, the interoperability between DSS will become more sensitive to the magnitude and variation in trajectory forecasting errors across DSS. This paper presents a parametric analysis of some of the larger error sources. Errors are considered due to turn dynamics, weight, wind gradient omission, speed intent, interim altitudes, top of descent placement, and wind for typical airborne flights. Estimates of error contributions to typical scenarios are presented as a function of phase of flight. While certain errors are isolated as having larger impacts on the typical scenario, all error sources considered may have significant impact on trajectory forecasting under specific circumstances.