Risk Assessment 1 Running Head: PREDICTION ISSUES IN SEX OFFENDER RISK ASSESSMENT Prediction Issues and the Role of Incremental Validity in Sex Offender Risk Assessment
نویسنده
چکیده
We review issues of prediction and discuss their relevance to the prediction of sexual offender recidivism. First, we briefly discuss the different types of sex offenses, rates of these offenses, and rates of recidivism among sex offenders. We then discuss key issues in the field of prediction, with special attention given to the relative advantages and disadvantages of clinical and statistical prediction, as the general superiority of the latter approach shown in the literature. In our discussion of sex offender recidivism, we review known predictors of recidivism. We further discuss the various approaches to predicting sexual recidivism, including the actuarial instruments that have been developed for this purpose. Finally, we discuss incremental validity methodology and its potential utility for understanding and improving upon risk assessments as they are actually used in applied settings.
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