A New Model of Trend Ination
نویسندگان
چکیده
This paper introduces a new model of trend ination. In contrast to many earlier approaches, which allow for trend ination to evolve according to a random walk, ours is a bounded model which ensures that trend ination is constrained to lie in an interval. The bounds of this interval can either be xed or estimated from the data. Our model also allows for a time-varying degree of persistence in the transitory component of ination. In an empirical exercise with CPI ination we nd the model to work well, yielding more sensible measures of trend ination and forecasting better than popular alternatives such as the unobserved components stochastic volatility model.
منابع مشابه
On-the-job Search, Ination Dynamics and Welfare Cost of Ination
This paper examines the implications of on-the-job search for both short-run dynamics of ination and long-run welfare costs of ination in a sticky price model with labour market search frictions. Both unemployed workers and workers with bad jobs can search. Firms can adjust labour at both intensive and extensive margins. On-the-job search gives rise a strong propagation of monetary policy sho...
متن کاملPredicting the Incidence and Trend of Breast Cancer Using Time Series Analysis for 2007-2016 in Qazvin
Introduction: Breast cancer is the most common cancer and the second leading cause of death in women worldwide. The aim of this study was to analyze the trend and predict the incidence of breast cancer using time series analysis. Methods: In this study, data on breast cancer incidence in Qazvin province between 2007 and 2016 were analyzed using time series analysis with autoregressive integrate...
متن کاملThe Prediction Number of New Cases and Death of Gastric Cancer Among Iranian Military Community During 2007-2019
Introduction: Although the trend of incidence and mortality of gastric cancer is decreasing in globally, this cancer is a problem in some areas of Iran. The purpose of the current study was the prediction of the future trend of incident cases and mortality of gastric cancer information in the military community (MC) by using time series method. Methods: In This cross-sectional aggregate based ...
متن کاملThe Prediction Number of New Cases and Death of Gastric Cancer Among Iranian Military Community During 2007-2019
Introduction: Although the trend of incidence and mortality of gastric cancer is decreasing in globally, this cancer is a problem in some areas of Iran. The purpose of the current study was the prediction of the future trend of incident cases and mortality of gastric cancer information in the military community (MC) by using time series method. Methods: In This cross-sectional aggregate based ...
متن کاملAcceleration-Based Quality Assessment of Railway Tracks using a 2D simulation model and recorded track data
Car body acceleration is an important factor affecting track safety and ride comfort, which are two primary aspects of railway systems. Though track level is an important source of wagon body acceleration, no quantitative relation between them is available and the aim of this paper is to propose a method to address this issue. To do so, car body acceleration is determined using a 10 DOF simulat...
متن کامل